tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5857671787257175446.post8004628410748148656..comments2024-03-02T14:10:05.737+05:30Comments on Musings: Musings on ITCManish Jainhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15929467790273675813noreply@blogger.comBlogger39125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5857671787257175446.post-78082340293517964882023-07-21T07:44:56.935+05:302023-07-21T07:44:56.935+05:30ankara
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I cannot add ...Extremely balanced analysis, Manish. I cannot add any new superlatives to the ones already given and can only agree with them. As someone who is positive on ITC, I read and re read your bear case scenarios and honestly tried to question myself what would happen, if all or some of them came true.<br />My feeling, which is , admittedly, nothing but a gut feeling is that, these are temporary headwinds yet being considered structural. Govt selling SUTTI could happen further depressing prices, just augmenting the opportunity to buy.<br />At the heart of it, the question remains " Do u trust the promoter/ management?". The best growth businesses in the hands of crooks will fizzle out inevitably and tough businesses in the hands of honest, capable people will survive and thrive.Its a very instinct driven thing. As I write this, my trust is with the management.BronzeHermithttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16144011399488617822noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5857671787257175446.post-70835771539839807622020-10-08T15:29:41.355+05:302020-10-08T15:29:41.355+05:30It's brilliant.It's brilliant. Ravi Shellyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02087762270742483610noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5857671787257175446.post-36108501605668643272020-10-07T21:16:06.530+05:302020-10-07T21:16:06.530+05:30deaf and useless management, I regret for my inves...deaf and useless management, I regret for my investment in itcyashwanthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12108772968214803487noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5857671787257175446.post-60507433873770503332020-10-05T01:26:44.906+05:302020-10-05T01:26:44.906+05:30Well written Manish 👍Well written Manish 👍Sarabjot Singhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17858851305782444035noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5857671787257175446.post-21457442467446446642020-09-18T15:28:08.230+05:302020-09-18T15:28:08.230+05:30I feel ITC pattern may be similar to Reliance. Rel...I feel ITC pattern may be similar to Reliance. Reliance was trading in the same range for nearly 10 years.<br /><br />Reliance effectively used cashflows generated from Oil & Gas to Retail & Jio, once consolidation phase got over, Mukesh has come out with a bang.<br /><br />VENKATA KARTHIKnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5857671787257175446.post-73994089431445203402020-09-16T20:47:31.348+05:302020-09-16T20:47:31.348+05:30You have answered yourself. ESG trend is big headw...You have answered yourself. ESG trend is big headwind for ITCManish Jainhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15929467790273675813noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5857671787257175446.post-35304882735268066972020-09-16T20:45:18.123+05:302020-09-16T20:45:18.123+05:30Agree.Right course of action will be useful tobacc...Agree.Right course of action will be useful tobacco cashflows to grow businesses and list those businesses to unlock value for investors..But how much returns stock will give is difficult to give.. it can give 4X returns or may not too.. Manish Jainhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15929467790273675813noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5857671787257175446.post-42864544524866406062020-09-16T16:50:31.577+05:302020-09-16T16:50:31.577+05:30Tobacco profits are like a goldmine for ITC and ne...Tobacco profits are like a goldmine for ITC and never going to decrease much.<br />It is difficult to create a brand in FMCG and market it.<br />The profits generated from tobacco should be effectively used to acquire existing small players in FMCG like sunrise Foods.<br />Investment on capital intensive hotels can be reduced.<br /><br />ITC is probably like in consolidation phase, all I can see is ITC is an attractive package of FMCG, hotel, agribusiness, papers etc. <br /><br />ITC should plan similar to Mukesh Ambani and delist the units once they are matured.<br /><br />ITC can give 4x or more returns once the consolidation phase gets over.<br /><br />VENKATA KARTHIKnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5857671787257175446.post-68685855885443637992020-09-15T21:06:11.354+05:302020-09-15T21:06:11.354+05:30Hotel is Brand and properties are prime... ITC is ...Hotel is Brand and properties are prime... ITC is in this business since 40 years..but returns have been suboptimal.Manish Jainhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15929467790273675813noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5857671787257175446.post-21236104427517027382020-09-15T21:00:04.287+05:302020-09-15T21:00:04.287+05:30Agree with your observations. Agree with your observations. Manish Jainhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15929467790273675813noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5857671787257175446.post-48492388592766701382020-09-14T16:03:35.609+05:302020-09-14T16:03:35.609+05:30Very good analysis...I have put 20% of my networth...Very good analysis...I have put 20% of my networth in ITC (ar Rs 200) ... Long run, it will do well...Undervaluation will continue for sometime...ITC has to do the following to get better valuations -<br /><br />1) Hotels business is a vanity business..they need to hive this<br />2) FMCG - do well in higher value addeded products (like perfumes, Dairy and Snacks ) - not Ashirwad Atta - even if you sell ~100000 Cr you will not make more than 2-3% margin <br /><br />3) Due to lack of a promoter and serious institutional overseeing, executive compensation is very high in FMCG biz...Managers who generate 4-5% margins need not get paid like Google executives (95+ % real margin).srinihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09171534542200647302noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5857671787257175446.post-26993501251582489462020-09-14T15:15:43.917+05:302020-09-14T15:15:43.917+05:30Agree with your wonderful analysis of undervalued ...Agree with your wonderful analysis of undervalued stuff but not sure why is Institution investors shying away with the stock?<br />Also sunset tobacco industry has over weightage on the stock which predominantly seems to be one the reason of its bearishness.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5857671787257175446.post-4211944133413884422020-09-14T14:50:54.477+05:302020-09-14T14:50:54.477+05:30Itc won't be out of the tobacco sector but a b...Itc won't be out of the tobacco sector but a better way would be to slowly turn around the hotels and divest them either into REIT's or to other hotel groups and slowly get itself into alcohol business. As alcohol has a rising trend in India and isn't considered as bad as tobacco while still earning superior margins. If the ESG funds aren't going to invest in the company then better make it more stronger and attractive for other share holders. Itc with its reach can really make this happen and could be a great competitor to Kingfisher / McDowellsAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5857671787257175446.post-51479707743307637132020-09-14T08:57:31.811+05:302020-09-14T08:57:31.811+05:30Very well articulated Manish ji. Really appreciate...Very well articulated Manish ji. Really appreciate your way of putting things in prospective.... My buying price is 155. Holding for next 5 years without any expectation. Itc is brand even in hotel segment n their properties are very prime.Love & Money is Rudimentaryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02879750893340967603noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5857671787257175446.post-18162818920917814412020-09-14T07:59:11.727+05:302020-09-14T07:59:11.727+05:30Thanks RishikeshThanks RishikeshManish Jainhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15929467790273675813noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5857671787257175446.post-55205742540209128062020-09-13T22:35:12.647+05:302020-09-13T22:35:12.647+05:30The way you have put forth your knowledge/study Ma...The way you have put forth your knowledge/study Manish, is sheer brilliance. So keep enlightening us.Rhishikesh Agashehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06541140968471888038noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5857671787257175446.post-40760306943662769902020-09-13T19:09:51.002+05:302020-09-13T19:09:51.002+05:30That will be good as it may improve returns on cap...That will be good as it may improve returns on capital. Let’s hope they don’t put more money in hotels.Manish Jainhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15929467790273675813noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5857671787257175446.post-42679614923681435282020-09-13T19:07:20.876+05:302020-09-13T19:07:20.876+05:30Thank you SwapnilThank you SwapnilManish Jainhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15929467790273675813noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5857671787257175446.post-60590038036394216252020-09-13T19:06:38.368+05:302020-09-13T19:06:38.368+05:30Thank you Mahendra....it’s due to your prodding to...Thank you Mahendra....it’s due to your prodding to publish it. Otherwise it was private musing.Manish Jainhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15929467790273675813noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5857671787257175446.post-73774725736485348782020-09-13T19:04:44.696+05:302020-09-13T19:04:44.696+05:30Thank you Sumit. Glad you found it useful.Thank you Sumit. Glad you found it useful.Manish Jainhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15929467790273675813noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5857671787257175446.post-14381264541226740942020-09-13T12:02:10.136+05:302020-09-13T12:02:10.136+05:30One point is add is management is saying in Hotel ...One point is add is management is saying in Hotel business they are moving to asset lite modelS Raj Kumar Rathihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17018211143150756976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5857671787257175446.post-58466546686031532862020-09-13T11:33:58.908+05:302020-09-13T11:33:58.908+05:30Really well written and excellent analysis, crispl...Really well written and excellent analysis, crisply explained without complex models. A great template for an investor to articulate before making an investment decision. Keep blogging. Mahendra Hemnanihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04625083390326848997noreply@blogger.com